Is OPS the Best Measure of a Players Offensive Worth?

OPS is the sum of a player’s on-base percentage and slugging percentage which calculate a player’s ability to get on base and to hit for power.  This seems like a very useful statistic for determining a player’s worth with the theory being that a player that is on base more would therefore score more by the law of averages.  Also, the same would be true that a player that hits for power more would score more as well.

 

The best way for me to grasp things like this is to put the numbers to the test and look at the results.  The top ten players in OPS for their career are Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Albert Pujols, Barry Bonds, Jimmie Foxx, Hank Greenberg, Rogers Hornsby, Manny Ramirez and Todd Helton*.  The only one I would possibly have a problem with is Todd Helton.  How did he get in there?  Looks like a pretty good list of the best ever to me.

 

The Adjusted OPS (OPS+) takes into account the ballpark and the league the player played in.  The top ten in OPS+ for their career are Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, Lou Gehrig, Rogers Hornsby, Mickey Mantle, Albert Pujols, Dan Brouthers, Joe Jackson, Ty Cobb and Jimmie Foxx*.  Again, a very impressive list.

 

Just for fun, I looked at last season’s (2009) OPS leaders.  They are Albert Pujols, Joe Mauer, Prince Fielder, Joey Votto, Derrek Lee, Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, Mark Teixeira, and Ben Zobrist (Manny Ramirez was omitted due to lack of plate appearances).  Once again, what a list.  I would start a team with any of these guys.  I bet you didn’t expect to see Joey Votto in the top ten (unless of course, you are a Reds fan).

 

I think OPS and OPS+ are two of the best stats for finding great hitters.  All that being said, I would not determine a player’s worth solely on OPS or OPS+.  If you have a player that has great plate discipline and therefore has a high on-base percentage but rarely ever hits for power, their OPS would be affected.  However, I would love to have that player hit just ahead of a guy high on this list (like Albert Pujols), so that one run has a much better chance of becoming two.  Also, this is solely an offensive category that does not take into account fielding or intangibles such as leadership.  So unless you are just looking for a DH or a fantasy player, I would look at the OPS and OPS+ but not make a decision solely from those numbers.

 

*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On-base_plus_slugging

Zito Plunks Fielder in Retaliation

Barry Zito decided that hitting Prince Fielder with a fastball in the back yesterday would teach him a lesson.  Fielder hit a walk-off homerun against the Giants in the playoffs last season and the team celebrated by falling like bowling pins when Fielder reached home plate.  There was no taunting or jestering in the direction of the mound or the Giants dugout.  But apparently celebrating a walk-off homerun in the playoffs is just unacceptable to the Giants.  This is one of the few opportunities when a professional ball player can enjoy the game.  This isn't tee-ball where everyone gets a trophy.  Let them enjoy the moment.  It was huge for him and his team.  Zito did all but cry na-na na-na na-na after drilling Fielder in the back on the first pitch of his first plate appearance.  In my opinion, there is a time for pitchers to ‘police’ the sport, but this definitely was not one of them.  Apparently, hitting a walk-off homerun in the playoffs is not a big event for the Giants.  Fielder handled the situation very well by tossing his bat back toward the dugout and even picking up and tossing the ball back toward Zito.  Given the choice of hitting a walk-off homerun in the playoffs and getting drilled the next year in Spring Training or losing the playoff game, I think I’ll take the walk-off every time.  The Brewers and Fielder obviously got the best of this deal but at least the Giants feelings aren’t still hurt.  My question:  Did Fielder even feel it?

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100304&content_id=8676528&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

2010 Predictions: AL East

First in the East this year should be a battle.  I went with the Red Sox due to their off-season activities.  After being swept in the first round of the playoffs last year, the Sox made some improvements.  Although Jason Bay departed for the Mets (and the money), the Sox signed Mike Cameron to take over in Center and moved Jacoby Ellsbury (my guy) to Left.  Cameron may be a slight downgrade from Bay, but the Sox also added Adrian Beltre at third and Marco Scutaro to fill the void that has been at short for awhile now.  With the trade of Lowell to Texas falling through, the Sox benefit with his services as a pinch hitter.  As long as Ortiz continues like he left off last season and Youkilis, Pedroia and Martinez stay on course, the Sox will put up good to great offensive numbers.  I didn’t mention JD Drew because 1)I’ve never been a big fan and 2)he can’t seem to stay of the DL but anything he can contribute will be a bonus.  The pitching staff easily rivals there New York counterparts.  Lester, Beckett, Lackey, Dice-K and Bucholtz is a dream rotation.  Wakefield can easily step into that 5th spot if Bucholtz struggles.  And Papelbon and Rivera might be 1 and 1a in the AL.

 

The Yankees slide back to second (maybe).  The loss of Damon and Matsui was not offset with the signing of Curtis Granderson.  Granderson should replace Damon well enough but there is still the hole left by World Series MVP Hideki Matsui.  Jeter is still putting up great numbers and plays a great shortstop but Posado is starting to show his age.  Cano should come back down to Earth a little since he showed some career numbers last season.  Arod and Teixeira will put up big numbers, of course, and Nick Swisher has the ability to although he strikes out a lot.  CC, AJ, Pettite, Vasquez, and Joba are sure to cause headaches for a lot of teams this year.  The jury is still out on Joba, but this is one of the premiere rotations in the league.  Rivera has shown no signs of slowing down at 40, but I’ve got to think he has to drop of a little.  Not to worry Yankee fans, the AL Wildcard will once again come out of the East so there is still post season play in your future.

 

The Tampa Bay Rays are unfortunately in the East with the big boys.  Stick them in the Central and they win the division every year.  The clock is ticking in Tampa and the pressure will actually make it harder for the Rays to contend this season.  The offense has a nice mix of power and speed.  Longoria, Pena, Upton and Crawford are going to put up numbers but Shields, Garza, Niemann, Price, and Davis can not compete in the AL East.  Look for Kelly Shoppach to take over at catcher to add some power to the lineup but the Rays are destined to finish 3rd again.

 

The Orioles are young but should make a bit of a splash this season.  The birds signed Kevin Millwood to anchor the rotation and give some leadership to their young pitching staff.  The O’s have a decent offense with Markakis, Roberts, Jones and Reimold.  I would expect Weiters to improve over last season and Tejada is still serviceable but his better days are behind him.  This team could stir up the pot in the East in the next couple of years but this is still a growing year.

 

The Blue Jays lost Alex Rios and Roy Halladay this offseason.  I could stop here and no one would question why.  Adam Lind, Aaron Hill and Vernon Wells will give Jays fans something to be excited about although Vernon Wells best days are in the past.  Kevin Gregg should be a nice addition in the bullpen to hold those late inning leads (assuming they have some).  Ricky Romero looks to be the bluebirds ace this season which won’t bode well for him.  Although Romero is a good pitcher, I would look for his numbers to drop off a little this season.

2010 Predictions: AL Central

I look for the Twins to remain atop the Central once again.  I could mention that they won the division last year with Mauer, Morneau and Nathan and leave it at that but the Twins didn’t rest on last year’s accomplishment.  Due to a short post-season, Minnesota went out and got JJ Hardy and Orlando Hudson to fill the gap in the middle.  Althoug, they don’t have a real ace on the staff, with the M&M boys (part 2) and maybe the best closer in the AL, the Twins look to take home the pennant again.

 

The White Sox only added Juan Pierre but that should be enough to jump last year’s second place team, the Tigers, to take the second spot this season.  With a pitching staff that includes Peavy, Buerhle, Danks and Floyd, you have to pick them to be in contention. 

 

That moves the Tigers down to third this season.  The addition of Johnny Damon only offsets the loss of Curtis Granderson.  So I look for the Tigers to remain about the same.  Magglio Ordonez, Brandon Inge and Miguel Cabrera could have great seasons and help the Tigers challenge the Sox, but with only Justin Verlander to strike fear into their opponents, I don’t believe their pitching is going to do them any favors this year.

 

The Cleveland Indians should be thankful that the Royals are in their division to keep them from finishing last (again).  The Tribe’s big move this off-season was the acquisition of a re-tread in Russel Branyan.  If he was the answer, why did they get rid of him in the first place?  Grady Sizemore and Shin-Soo Choo should add some offensive excitement for tribe fans but that will be about it.  Jake Westbrook is no ace, yet he is first in the rotation.  Indians fans should home for the return of the Fausto from a couple of years ago.

 

The Royals will once again bring up the rear in the division.  While Zack Greinke might be the best pitcher in the AL Central, a division with names like Peavy, Buerhle and Verlander, he alone can’t save the lowly Royals.  Joakim Soria is another highlight of a dismal team.