Reds Ready to Take the NL Central

With the exporting of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce and Company look to take the NL Central this season.  April can't get here fast enough for OhioMLBfans!  The Reds make their way south for camp which opens February 19th for pitchers and 24th for the rest of the squad.  Get the rundown at Reds on MLB.com

Opening Day Excitement

Opening day has finally come and gone.  The weather could not have been better and the games likewise.  Sunday night the Red Sox come from behind on the strength of Kevin Youkilis’ three extra base hits and a solo shot from Dustin Pedroia to beat the hated Yankees.  Yesterday, Jason Heyward hits a long homerun on his first swing ever as a major league player and the Braves spanked the Cubs who tied an opening day record by allowing 16 runs.  Sir Albert Pujols hit not one but two opening day homeruns which puts him on pace for 324.  It could be a good season.  Roy Halladay pitched a gem in Philly as the reigning NL champs look to repeat.  Tim lincecum struck out 7 and gave up only 4 hits through 7 innings in a Giants 5-2 win over Houston.  Perhaps the play of the entire season has already occurred.  Mark Buerhle kicked a ball that was hit back at him, then chased it down as it careened toward the first base line between the pitcher’s mound and first.  He crosses the base path right in front of the baserunner and in one motion, scoops the ball with his glove and flicks it between his legs underhand to first to get the runner by about a half step.  WOW!  What does day two have in store?

Is OPS the Best Measure of a Players Offensive Worth?

OPS is the sum of a player’s on-base percentage and slugging percentage which calculate a player’s ability to get on base and to hit for power.  This seems like a very useful statistic for determining a player’s worth with the theory being that a player that is on base more would therefore score more by the law of averages.  Also, the same would be true that a player that hits for power more would score more as well.

 

The best way for me to grasp things like this is to put the numbers to the test and look at the results.  The top ten players in OPS for their career are Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Albert Pujols, Barry Bonds, Jimmie Foxx, Hank Greenberg, Rogers Hornsby, Manny Ramirez and Todd Helton*.  The only one I would possibly have a problem with is Todd Helton.  How did he get in there?  Looks like a pretty good list of the best ever to me.

 

The Adjusted OPS (OPS+) takes into account the ballpark and the league the player played in.  The top ten in OPS+ for their career are Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, Lou Gehrig, Rogers Hornsby, Mickey Mantle, Albert Pujols, Dan Brouthers, Joe Jackson, Ty Cobb and Jimmie Foxx*.  Again, a very impressive list.

 

Just for fun, I looked at last season’s (2009) OPS leaders.  They are Albert Pujols, Joe Mauer, Prince Fielder, Joey Votto, Derrek Lee, Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, Mark Teixeira, and Ben Zobrist (Manny Ramirez was omitted due to lack of plate appearances).  Once again, what a list.  I would start a team with any of these guys.  I bet you didn’t expect to see Joey Votto in the top ten (unless of course, you are a Reds fan).

 

I think OPS and OPS+ are two of the best stats for finding great hitters.  All that being said, I would not determine a player’s worth solely on OPS or OPS+.  If you have a player that has great plate discipline and therefore has a high on-base percentage but rarely ever hits for power, their OPS would be affected.  However, I would love to have that player hit just ahead of a guy high on this list (like Albert Pujols), so that one run has a much better chance of becoming two.  Also, this is solely an offensive category that does not take into account fielding or intangibles such as leadership.  So unless you are just looking for a DH or a fantasy player, I would look at the OPS and OPS+ but not make a decision solely from those numbers.

 

*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On-base_plus_slugging

2010 Predictions: NL Central

This one isn’t hard to pick.  The Cardinals look to stay atop the division in 2010.  Pujols still amazes and the addition of Matt Holiday last season adds another bat to the lineup, showing that the Cards are content with just winning the division.  As long as Wainswright and Carpenter are at the top of the rotation, this team will continue to win.  Brad Penny was added in the fourth spot but I don’t know if this helps or not.  I’m looking forward to see how their young stud shortstop Brendan Ryan betters his performance of a year ago.  As long as Big Mac doesn’t cause too much of a distraction, 2010 promises to be another good season for the Cards.

I look for the Reds to move up to second in the division this year after picking up Orlando Cabrera to help plug the hole up the middle.  There is too much talent (Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips) to think that this team shouldn’t do better.  With a starting rotation of Harang/Arroyo/Cueto and now the addition of Aroldis Chapman, the Reds should have what it takes to make a run this season.  As long as the can stay competitive until June, hopefully Edison Volquez will return from Tommy John surgery and give this team the boost they need for the stretch run.

Sliding to third then, is the Chicago Cubs.  Everyone says their window of opportunity is closing with guys like Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Alfonso Soriano and Ted Lilly getting older but I think their window has already starting closing.  Although the Cubs will run out Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster and Wells, I think their age will hold them back.

The Brewers have possibly the best 3-4 hitters in the game with Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, but with the departing of JJ Hardy and Mike Cameron, they should struggle to score runs.  Still manageable for teams with good pitching, but the Brew Crew struggled last year from the mound and the addition of Randy Wolf doesn’t appear to be enough.

Hanging around in the fifth spot is the Astros for another season.  Essentially, the ‘stros are playing with 4 guys (Hunter Pence, Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman and Michael Bourn) and 2 pitchers (Wandy Rodriguez and Roy Oswalt).  I don’t look for the Astros to make much of an impact in 2010.

Bringing up the rear as usual are the Pirates.  This year, however, there is hope.  The bucs bring a lot of young talent to spring training this year.  2010 should be a learning season for Pittsburg, but look for a climb in the standings in years to come.

Two in a Row for Albert

Albert Pujols sweeps the first place voting and takes home the NL MVP for a second straight year. Pujola joined an elite crowd by winning his third overall MVP. Only Barry Bonds has more with seven. Subtract the steroids and Bonds would have three also. Pujols led the league in homeruns, was sixth in hits and third in RBI. He also finished with a .327 batting average. Albert also led the league in put outs and finished with a .992 fielding percentage. The race for second was much closer. While pujols received all the first place votes and earned 448 points, Hanley Ramirez beat out Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder by mere points with 233 compared to 217 and 203 respectively. Pujols continues to be a premiere player.