2010 Predictions: NL East

The NL East has a clear winner and a clear bottom dweller.  However, the middle is tough to pick.  Obviously, the three-time defending NL East Champion Philadelphia Phillies, who added Roy Halladay to an already stacked rotation, are not only my favorite to win the East again but also my pick for the National League representative in the World Series. 

At the bottom, once again, are the lowly Nationals that have a young pitching staff and added an aging (old) Pudge Rodriguez.  Ryan Zimmerman and Josh Willingham should offer the fans some excitement and although I’m not a big fan, I suppose Adam Dunn does provide some power.  The big event this year for the Nats should be when rookie Stephen Strasburg gets the call to throw some for the big club.

The middle three were essentially a toss-up for me.  I made the safe bet and chose the Mets to finish second almost exclusively off of name recognition.  With guys like Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, David Wright and the addition of Jason Bay, you have to expect good things to happen.  The starting rotation brings the expectations back to Earth.  After Johan Santana, there are a lot of questions.  Francisco Rodriguez needs the game to be close to even have a chance of helping.  If the Mets can avoid the injury and the offense can put up some numbers, they have a chance to finish high in the standings but probably won’t have enough to earn the NL Wild Card.

The young talent in Florida could help the Marlins have a decent season.  Somehow they manage to hang around for most of the year, so with guys like Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco coming back with another year’s experience, perhaps they can make a viable run at that second spot.

The Braves outfield production was well below what was expected last year.  If Nate McLouth can bounce back and Melky Cabrera can bring New York-esque numbers with him, the Braves have a legitimate shot at second as well.  The addition of Billy Wagner could help shutdown the opposition late in the game to give the Braves the edge they need.  And of course there is always the Bobby Cox factor.  I’m sure this team wants to send him out on top, but the question is, can they?

Glavine Retires; Headed for Hall

Tom Glavine officially announced his retirement yesterday after 22 seasons as a major league pitcher.  Glavine was instrumental in the Braves unprecedented 14 consecutive NL East pennants.  He began his career with the lowly Braves of the late 80s before helping turn the team around going from worst to first in 1991.  The trio of Glavine/Smoltz/Maddux is still one of the best starting rotation in the history of the game.  Glavine won two NL Cy Young awards (1991, 1998) and is fourth on the all-time wins list for left-handed pitchers with 305, behind guys like Warren Spahn, Steve Carlton and Eddie Plank and just ahead of recently retired Randy Johnson.  He pitched his last game in 2008, which makes him eligible for the Hall of Fame induction in 2014, the same year that former teammate and friend Greg Maddux will be eligible.  Glavine went to the New York Mets in 2002 where he eventually won his 300th game before returning to the Braves at the end of 2007.  Glavine will be remembered as one of the good guys both on and off the field.

Bay Departs Boston

Proving that it really is ‘only about the money,’ Jason Bay has signed with the New York Metropolitans for a reported $66 million for 4 years. The Red Sox had reportedly offered Bay $60 million for 4 years which he declined. I have a hard time believing that Jason Bay will put up similar numbers at a pitcher’s ballpark like Citi Field. Bay will no longer have the protection or see the same pitches that he saw while surrounded by guys like Ortiz, Youkilis, Drew and Martinez. The Mets were last in MLB in homeruns last year, while the Red Sox had 7 guys with the same or more homeruns than the Mets HR leader. The Red Sox hit more than 125 more homeruns and 200 more RBIs than the Mets last year. While the Sox did not fare well in the playoffs last season, they did, however, make it to the playoffs and appear to be poised to do so for the foreseeable future.